Brazil, Italy likely to kick off World cup as FIFA rankings reveals top seeded teams

Brazil v Italy. Twice a World Cup final, it could be the
World Cup opening match in Sao Paulo on June 12.

And the second match the next day could be a 2010 final
repeat: Spain v the Netherlands.

Thank the Fifa rankings that decide which teams are seeded
if the World Cup receives such a blockbuster kickoff.

The often-criticised rankings will surely be attacked on
Thursday when they decide the eight top seeds in the
World Cup groups being drawn on December 6.

The powerful Dutch, runners-up in 2010, and Italians,
2006 champions, should miss out despite going unbeaten
through qualifying, according to unofficial calculations
provided by Fifa's website.

Belgium and Colombia are likely in, despite failing to
qualify for the 2010 tournament. They will join Brazil,
Spain, Germany, Argentina plus Uruguay, if it beats Jordan
in a playoff.

Also likely is Switzerland, which will spark questions
about how Fifa grades national teams over a four-year
results cycle.

Indeed, Switzerland's surge up the rankings - fueled by a
14-match unbeaten run in qualifying and friendlies - might
cast doubt on the value of being seeded.

The intention of seeding is rewarding the best by ensuring
they avoid the other strongest teams in the group stage.

Host Brazil is automatically seeded in Group A. The
decision to allocate the other seven seeds by the October
rankings alone was agreed on by the Fifa executive
committee only this month.

That leaves the Netherlands, Italy and England - all seeded
at the 2010 World Cup when Fifa rankings were again
decisive - lurking as potential opponents for Argentina
early in the tournament.

England coach Roy Hodgson expects "two very, very
good teams in every group," with Fifa set to allocate the
other places by geographical spread rather than ranking.
"It's pretty unnecessary to worry too much about whether
we are the first or second out of the hat," Hodgson said on
Wednesday.

Still, Lionel Messi and Argentina might prefer to face
Switzerland instead, after their classy 3-1 victory in a
February 2012 friendly at Bern where the world's best
player scored all three.

Switzerland's young team is certainly better since failing
even to reach the 2012 European Championship.
Euro 2012 was almost the perfect place to score ranking
points in a Fifa system which gives greater weight to recent
results, competitive matches, beating higher-ranked
opponents, and wins against European and South
American teams.

So Italy's slip beneath Switzerland is a little mystifying
given its run to the Euro 2012 final, including beating
Germany in the semifinals.

However, Italy is penalised for drawing its final qualifiers
2-2, in Denmark last Friday and at home to 55th-ranked
Armenia on Tuesday. Victory in either would have
guaranteed a seeding in Brazil.

"I'm not disappointed. The goal was qualifying," Italy
coach Cesare Prandelli said. "At the European

Championship we weren't a top seed either and we finished
second, so we shouldn't let it bother us. It doesn't worry
me."

Italy still carries an intimidation factor which the Swiss
lack, and also comes with Cristiano Ronaldo's Portugal and
a Franck Ribery-inspired France. Both could join an
illustrious pot of unseeded European teams at the World
Cup draw in Salvador de Bahia following an eight-team
playoffs round next month.

Portugal and France both could have fared better under
Fifa's old system of seeding teams based on performances
at recent World Cups. France being runner-up in 2006,
when Portugal got to the semifinals, counts for nothing
now.

Though Portugal also reached the Euro 2012 semifinals
and France was a quarterfinalist, both have dropped below
a Swiss team which neither has played in the past four
years.

France has further gripes about Fifa's seeding by rankings,
because it placed second to Spain in the only European
qualifying group with five teams rather than six.

Coach Didier Deschamps this week called it a "double
punishment" that France had two fewer qualifiers to earn
ranking points, and will likely be edged by Ukraine for
seeding in the European playoffs being drawn on Monday.

"From my point of view it's not very logical," said
Deschamps, whose route to Brazil could be directed
through Portugal.

The Netherlands, which took top spot from Spain in the
August 2011 rankings, did play Switzerland but drew 0-0
in Amsterdam in November 2011.

The Dutch might yet be seeded if Uruguay slips up, but
could have edged the Swiss by beating 88th-ranked
Estonia in Tallinn last month. They needed a stoppage-time
goal to draw 2-2.

Switzerland, however, can also suggest one key result
which raised its ranking and perhaps justifies its top-seed
status.

In August, when so many teams treat their friendlies
lightly, coach Ottmar Hitzfeld's team beat Brazil 1-0.